As we close out 2025, it’s time to put some chips on the table.
Here are a few bold 2026 predictions for commerce, retail media, and generative AI — some controversial, some grounded in very real data and behavior shifts already underway.
Agentic Commerce Remains Overhyped
Major retail platforms make their money by owning discovery, selling advertising and monetizing first‑party data, so truly open agents that roam catalogs and transact autonomously impact their economic model.
AI Browsers have yet to take off and lack mobile. Perplexity’s Comet and OpenAI’s Atlas have launched with limited fanfare. Atlassian’s Dia, Google’s Project Mariner and other experiments will remain niche.
When purchases aren’t obvious (travel, electronics, fashion), consumers still want control, brand cues, and post‑purchase accountability; offloading everything to an agent is convenient but not trustworthy.
The real power will sit with a handful of platform-level agents (Amazon’s Rufus, Walmart’s Spark, TikTok, Apple, Google), turning most brand-side agents into glorified feed optimizers rather than true customer interfaces.
TikTok Shop Exceeds $100 Billion in GMV Surpassing eBay and Temu
TikTok’s growth rate and adoption provide an audience to cement the media destination as a commerce destination exceeding both eBay and Temu.
Although TikTok Shop is still skewed to trend‑driven goods and merchants tend to be reseller bundles, brands continue to take the platform more seriously as the new Bytedance and US investor ownership model has set in.
TikTok isn’t just another marketplace. It’s where discovery, content, and conversion collapse into a single surface — and that’s the threat every other platform is scrambling to answer.
Brands Will Seek Tariff Refunds
A major Supreme Court case (Learning Resources v. Trump) could invalidate broad Trump-era tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA); if that happens, importers may be entitled to large refunds on those specific tariffs.
If refunds go through, 2026 could become one of the most profitable years on record for many brands — while brands nationwide can also expect a new wave of spam calls from service providers eager to capture that demand.
Marketplaces Become Media Landlords
2026 forecasts show marketplaces and social commerce platforms gaining share as brands further diversify away from single-channel dependence yet remain concentrated inside a few mega-aggregators.
These platforms are rolling out smarter, AI-led seller/vendor scoring, catalog onboarding, and compliance tools, further tightening control over who gets visibility and at what cost.
Retail media will quietly morph into “agent optimization spend”: brands will buy not just ad slots but preferential treatment in AI agents (Rufus, Spark, etc.) and marketplace ranking systems, entrenching pay-to-play dynamics even deeper than today’s search ads.
If you don’t treat marketplaces as both distribution and paid media - with P&L guardrails for each - 2026 will be painful.
AI-driven Personalization Widens the Gap Between Data-Rich and Data-Poor Brands
AI-native personalization, predictive analytics, and unified customer data are becoming baseline expectations, not differentiators, across eCommerce and retail in 2026.
Brands with rich first-party data and clean product information will convert better inside generative AI engines and feeds, while laggards will be optimized away by algorithms focused on conversion and margin.
For most brands, the most impactful “AI investment” over the next 12–18 months isn’t a cute chatbot. It’s the unglamorous work of PIM, CDP, and data governance.
Logistics and Operations Become the Real Moat Again
2026 outlooks show AI and automation driving more efficient fulfillment, tighter demand forecasting, and proactive churn prevention across leading eCommerce operations.
As social and agentic commerce abstract away the storefront, speed, reliability, returns, and inventory accuracy become the main levers left for brands to differentiate.
The loudest “innovators” next year will talk about agents and avatars; the actual winners will be the boring operators quietly fixing catalog hygiene, returns workflows, and multi‑node fulfillment while everyone else chases hype.
Gemini Overtakes ChatGPT In Generative AI Traffic Share
Consider Gemini having just over 7% share 12 months ago. Fast forward to early December and that number is just under 20% share.
Google’s reach in Chrome, Android and streaming TV provides a captive audience to embed the offering and provide everyday seamless access to generative AI via “accidental” searches versus “destination” searches on ChatGPT.
Apple’s Siri won’t be replaced by Gemini but will become the secondary model for iPhone/iOS users.
Brands Optimize for Reddit and YouTube “LLM share of voice”
With Reddit being the most cited source makes “LLM share of voice” a real asset for communities and brands, so expect more deliberate seeding of threads and comments aimed at being surfaced in AI answers.
With YouTube dominating chatbot referrals, creators and advertisers start thinking in terms of “AI-intent views” (views originating from LLM recommendations) and optimize thumbnails, titles, and chapters for AI surfaces as much as for human browse/search.
Current data suggests Reddit (text) and YouTube (video) remain the two default destinations representing “what real people say and show.”
If you’re leading eCommerce, retail, or marketing into 2026, the through‑line is pretty simple:
Focus less on building flashy agents and more on making your data, operations, and content so good that the agents and algorithms have no choice but to pick you.
Curious where you agree, disagree, or have your own spicy prediction — what would you add to this list for 2026?