Retail Share Shifts Starting 2019: Costco & TJX

Comp sales released during earnings are a backward indicator of success in the preceding quarter but generally provide a view of how market share is shifting amongst like for like retailers as well as share leaving one sector to another. A couple of takeaways from this past quarter:

  • Costco is on fire. The warehouse club has posted 4 consecutive quarters of >7.0%. Phenomenal.

  • Off-price remains positive. All majors such as Burlington, Nordstrom Rack, Ross and TJX posted increases. Burlington was weakest amongst the majors and TJX posted a 3rd straight result >6.0%.

  • Big box mass sees above average results with Walmart posting an impressive 4.2% and Target just under 3.0%.

  • Department Stores remain difficult. From the abysmal results of JC Penney to the tepid results of Macy’s and Kohls.

I remain convinced that Costco still remains the best play in retail with their strong membership base moat and industry leading comp results. Second to Costco is TJX as they gain share from Department Stores and other retail bankruptcies.

ryanmcraver Retail Comps